China is keen to be seen as a world-class nuclear power



WE SHOULD ALL BE WATCHING CHINESE MILITARY POWER


The People’s Republic may be the top military power by 2050


It seems to be an unfortunate fact of human nature that power is seen to be a virtue in itself. This is manifest when considering who can and cannot possess nuclear weapons.

My argument is that the People’s Republic of China, which is already slated to be the world’s highest economic performer, may well be the world’s top military power. Economics and military power go together.

Quite recently I found a 1999 newspaper article on the subject of China having mastered the know-how to produce a neutron bomb.

A neutron bomb has been described as a perfect economic weapon of war because it kills people but leaves property intact. A typical neutron bomb has the following characteristics:

§ The blast and heat is confined to only a few hundred yards
§ It throws a massive wave of neutron and gamma radiation across a larger area
§ It can penetrate armour and several feet of earth
§ It is extremely destructive to living tissue
§ It can be launched by missiles, by artillery and by attack aircraft

Naturally, there was widespread suspicion that China’s breakthrough was based on stolen American technology. But there was no condemnation of China.

Naturally, all this has to be seen in the context of the People’s Republic’s ongoing quarrel with Taiwan and the then American president Clinton being under fire for not doing enough to protect his nation’s nuclear and other military secrets.

The Chinese government’s spokesman at the time, a Mr Zhao, said that technological breakthroughs made by Chinese scientists had paralleled those of their American counterparts. He added that the accusations of theft contained in a report by the Republican Congressman Christopher Cox had obvious "racist" overtones.
"The Chinese can't be as smart as the Americans, therefore they must have stolen the technology," Mr Zhao said sarcastically.
A lengthy statement released by the official Chinese news agency Xinhua, gave details of Chinese nuclear research over the past 25 years.
It said that Chinese scientists had also developed the ability to construct miniaturised nuclear warheads, as well as anti-submarine technology and "dispenser" techniques for launching multiple satellites from a single rocket.
The statement said that it was "logical" for China to develop a neutron bomb capability given the arms race then underway between the USA and the Soviet Union.
"China had no other choice but to continue to carry out research and development of nuclear weapons technology and improve its nuclear weapons systems, mastering in succession the neutron bomb design technology and the nuclear weapon miniaturisation technology," Mr Zhao said.
Mr Zhao did not say when China developed the neutron bomb, or whether it had conducted tests or deployed the weapon.
China has repeatedly said that its nuclear weapons programme is purely for defensive purposes.
China is thought to have detonated its first neutron bomb 11 years ago, but made no public announcement about the test.
The BBC’s Beijing correspondent, James Miles, said that China was keen to demonstrate that it was a world-class nuclear power capable of keeping up with the latest technology without resorting to espionage.
The Cox report published in May 1999 alleged that China had systematically stolen detailed blueprints for virtually all the nuclear warheads in the American arsenal.
As a result, the report said, China's technological ability in the field of nuclear weapons had reached a par with the USA.
The Chinese government has consistently denied the charges and dismissed the report's findings as sheer nonsense.
A 25,000 word rebuttal issued at the time stated that a good deal of the information on the principle and structure of the neutron bomb alleged to have been stolen was in fact widely available on the Internet and that the report's authors were guided by an anti-Chinese bias.
However the Cox report sent shockwaves through the American military establishment at the time, with leading congressmen demanding that President Clinton do more to tighten security at weapons research facilities
China is one of the five "Nuclear Weapons States" (NWS) under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which China ratified in 1992. China is the only NWS to give an unqualified security assurance to non-nuclear-weapon states: "China undertakes not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon States or nuclear-weapon-free zones at any time or under any circumstances."
Because of strict secrecy it is very difficult to determine the exact size and composition of China's nuclear forces. Two declassified U.S. government reports give historical estimates. The 1984 Defense Intelligence Agency "Defense Estimative Brief" estimated the Chinese nuclear stockpile as consisting of between 150 and 160 warheads. A 1993 National Security Council report estimated that China's nuclear deterrent force relied on 60 to 70 nuclear armed ballistic missiles. In 2004 the U.S. Department of Defense assessed that China had about 20 ICBMs capable of targeting the USA.
China's first test of a nuclear device took place on October 16, 1964, at the Lop Nur test site. China's last nuclear test was on July 29, 1996. According to the Australian Geological Survey Organization in Canberra the yield of the 1996 test was one to five kilotons. This was China's 22nd underground test and 45th test overall.
China has made significant improvements in its miniaturization techniques since the 1980s. There have been accusations, notably by the Cox Commission, that this was done primarily by covertly acquiring the American W-70 warhead design as well as ballistic missile guidance. Chinese scientists have stated that they have made advances in these areas, but insist that these advances were made indigenously without copying American designs.
Although the total number of nuclear weapons in the Chinese arsenal is unknown, as of 2005 the various estimates vary from as low as 80 to as high as 2000. In 2004 China stated "Among the nuclear-weapon states, China ... possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal", implying that they have fewer than the 200 nuclear weapons the United Kingdom has. Most sources say that China has about 400-430 nuclear warheads. Some authors argue that American intelligence estimates suggest a much smaller nuclear force than many non-governmental organizations.
The following is an estimate of China’s nuclear forces.
Land-based Intercontinental Ballistic and Cruise Missiles (ICBMs): Athough unconfirmed, most Western analysts believe that China has deployed 24~36 DF-5 single-warhead, three-stage, liquid-fueled ICBMs since the 1980s (range of 12,000-15,000 KM). China is developing the DF-31, a modern solid-fuel ICBM (range of 8,000 km - 10,000 km) with a MIRV capability, which the U.S. Department of Defense assessed in 2004 would be deployed later this decade.
Sea-based weapons: The People's Liberation Army Navy's SLBM inventory is relatively new. China launched its first 2nd-generation nuclear armed submarine in April 1981. The Chinese navy currently has 1 Type 092 Xia class SSBN at roughly 8,000 tons displacement. A second Type 092 was reportedly lost in an accident in 1985. The Type 092 is equipped with 12 JL-1 SLBMs with a range of 2150-2500 km. The JL-1 is a modified DF-21 missile.
The Chinese navy is developing the Type 094 class SSBN, it is reported at least one of these have been completed. This submarine will be capable of carrying 16 of the longer ranged, more modern JL-2s with a range of approximately 8000 km.
Heavy bomber group: China's bomber force is mostly comprised of Chinese-made versions of Soviet aircraft. The People's Liberation Army Air Force currently has 20 H-5s (a variant of the Ilyushin Il-28) and 120 H-6s (a variant of the Tupolev Tu-16). All these obsolete bombers are outfitted to carry nuclear as well as conventional weapons. The Chinese have also produced the Xian JH-7 Flying Leopard fighter-bomber (currently about 20 are in service) capable of delivering a nuclear strike. China has also bought the more advanced Sukhoi Su-30 from Russia, currently, about 100 Su-30s (MKK and MK2 variants) have been purchased by China. The Su-30 is capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons.
Well, if I have not already lost you with all that detail I would like to bring you back to my point and my argument which is that size and power seem to be self-justifying virtues.
Now, why isn’t there international condemnation of China’s nuclear powers? Why is there no orchestration of protest againt “weapons of mass destruction” being in the possession of the PRC? Why are there no economic boycotts and threats of military action by the outraged guardians of Western civilisation?
After all, if China has the world’s fastest growing big economy it will be able to finance a burgeoning military budget and become the top military power by mid-century. That should make the great and the good and the establishment journalists hot under the collar, shouldn’t it? Apparently, it does not.
Instead, our attention and our anger is directed towards Iran on account of that nation having a nuclear power generation programme such that the potential to process uranium into weapons grade material would be there.
Clearly there is a discrepancy.
My conclusion is that the explanation for that discrepancy is that China is big in area and in population and has the loyalties of millions of Chinese descended peoples all over the world from Indonesia to California.As thay say on the Godzilla film posters:“Size counts.”

THE END

This article was first published in the 20th April, 2006 issue of the Bangla Mirror newspaper, the first English language weekly for the United Kingdom's Bangladeshis - read all over the world, from the Arctic to the Antarctic